Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

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High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

Debt Capital Markets

Agung Podomoro Land / Debt Capital Markets

We view Agung Podomoro Land (APL) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale, driven by the diversified portfolio of projects, long operating track record, and history of prudent financial management and policy. The key credit driver in the near term will be the outcome of the regulatory and suspension issue involving Pluit City. This is one of the company’s reclamation projects, with large unrecognised marketing sales and customer advances having been received. Aside from this matter, we like APL’s large portfolio of investment properties - 11 malls, an office building and six hotels - which accounted for 27% of revenue and 43% of EBITDA in FY 2016. Its property sales business is also diversified across the low- and high-end segments, as well as geographically. Our Credit Bias is “Negative”, given the regulatory uncertainty surrounding the Pluit City project - which has large unrecognised marketing sales and carrying value - as well as the challenging real estate environment in Indonesia. We view the company's corporate governance as “Weak” on the LAGA scale, primarily due to: [1] majority ownership (75%) and control by a single shareholder, albeit the family appears to be prudent; [2] short track record as a listed company (since 2010); and [3] prior management team's involvement in a bribery case. Based on the peer comps and considering the new issuer premium, we see fair value for APL’s proposed Notes at around 6%.

We view Agung Podomoro Land (APL) as “Medium Risk” on the LARA scale, driven by the diversified portfolio of projects, long operating track record, and history of prudent financial management and policy. The key credit driver in the near term will be the outcome of the regulatory and suspension issue involving Pluit City. This is one of the company’s reclamation projects, with large unrecognised marketing sales and customer advances having been received. Aside from this matter, we like APL’s large portfolio of investment properties - 11 malls, an office building and six hotels - which accounted for 27% of revenue and 43% of EBITDA in FY 2016. Its property sales business is also diversified across the low- and high-end segments, as well as geographically.  Our Credit Bias is “Negative”, given the regulatory uncertainty surrounding the Pluit City project - which has large unrecognised marketing sales and carrying value - as well as the challenging real estate environment in Indonesia.  We view the company's corporate governance as “Weak” on the LAGA scale, primarily due to: [1] majority ownership (75%) and control by a single shareholder, albeit the family appears to be prudent; [2] short track record as a listed company (since 2010); and [3] prior management team's involvement in a bribery case.  Based on the peer comps and considering the new issuer premium, we see fair value for APL’s proposed Notes at around 6%. 

Agung Podomoro Land - New Issue Snapshot - Lucror Analytics