Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

High Yield Experts

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

Credit

We view Agung Podomoro Land (APL) as “Very High Risk” on the LARA scale, due to the company's very weak operational performance, the steep decline in revenues and profits, as well as large cash outflows. One critical supporting factor for the credit in the near term will be the sale of Central Park Mall (worth c. IDR 6.3 tn), which should help to cover the weak OCF and support the execution of projects. Another key credit driver is Pluit City, which has been weighing on the credit due to regulatory issues and the resultant suspension of works. Pluit City is one of APL's reclamation projects, with significant unrecognised marketing sales and customer advances only partially received. We view favourably the company's large portfolio of investment properties and that its property-sales business is diversified by geography and market segment, with exposure to both the low- and high-end segments. Our Credit Bias on APL is “Negative”, given: [1] the impact of COVID-19 on the company's already weak operational performance; [2] regulatory uncertainty surrounding the Pluit City project (with large unrecognised marketing sales and carrying value); and [3] the persistently weak liquidity, with high refinancing risk. We view APL's corporate governance as “Weak” on the LAGA scale, primarily owing to: [1] the majority ownership (75%) and control by a single shareholder, albeit the family appears to be prudent; [2] its short track record as a listed company (since 2010); and [3] the former management's involvement in a bribery case.

  We view Agung Podomoro Land (APL) as “Very High Risk” on the LARA scale, due to the company's very weak operational performance, the steep decline in revenues and profits, as well as large cash outflows. One critical supporting factor for the credit in the near term will be the sale of Central Park Mall (worth c. IDR 6.3 tn), which should help to cover the weak OCF and support the execution of projects. Another key credit driver is Pluit City, which has been weighing on the credit due to regulatory issues and the resultant suspension of works. Pluit City is one of APL's reclamation projects, with significant unrecognised marketing sales and customer advances only partially received. We view favourably the company's large portfolio of investment properties and that its property-sales business is diversified by geography and market segment, with exposure to both the low- and high-end segments.   Our Credit Bias on APL is “Negative”, given: [1] the impact of COVID-19 on the company's already weak operational performance; [2] regulatory uncertainty surrounding the Pluit City project (with large unrecognised marketing sales and carrying value); and [3] the persistently weak liquidity, with high refinancing risk.   We view APL's corporate governance as “Weak” on the LAGA scale, primarily owing to: [1] the majority ownership (75%) and control by a single shareholder, albeit the family appears to be prudent; [2] its short track record as a listed company (since 2010); and [3] the former management's involvement in a bribery case. 

Agung Podomoro Land - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics