Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Equity Analyst with 15+ years of experience as a Buy Side analyst covering companies in the Emerging and Developed markets.
Fundamental and Quantitative analysis on companies in the Internet, Telecommunication, Media, Technology, IT Services, Healthcare, Pharmaceutical and other Industrial sectors.
Idea generation focussed on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Global Emerging Market Equities

Alibaba (BABA US): Ant Group Woes Overly Priced-In

Long/Short: Alibaba/Vipshop, a Comparative Valuation

Alibaba (BABA US): Unloved but Undeterred

Alibaba – Is There a Problem in Core-Commerce?

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>, and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Given the significant uncertainty surrounding 1) the impact that a regulatory-induced restructuring could have on the eventually listed Ant Group (6688 HK), and 2) the full final impact of increased anti-monopoly regulatory efforts from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the Alibaba Group (9988 HK), it has been difficult to assess a fair valuation level for the company. Following the indefinite suspension of Ant Group’s IPO, in November 2020, we witnessed a c.30% sell-off (or $260bn!) in Alibaba Group’s share price, before starting its recovery back to current levels, triggered by the reappearance of Jack Ma and a solid earnings report for the quarter ended December 2020. The net result, however, has been a roughly 17% (or $140bn) decline in Alibaba’s listed value. In this insight, I take a deep dive into Alibaba’s Sum-of-The-Parts valuation to assess what implied value is currently priced in for their equity holding in Ant Group, and what can be deduced from the current valuation for their Core Commerce operations.

Meinian Onehealth Healthcare H (002044 CH)

Focus Media Information Technology Co, Ltd. (002027 CH)

Focus Media Information Technology Co, Ltd.

Alibaba: A Detailed Look at the SOTP, and What that Tells Us About the Ant Group and Core Commerce