Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Playing the Earnings Via Derivatives

Alibaba: Post Earnings Price Reaction Confirms Investors Are Worried Of a Fading Core-Business

Alibaba: FY3Q23 Results Presenting An Opportunity In Disguise

Alibaba Cloud - On Path to Fetch Zero Dollar Valuation

Alibaba – Cash Cows in Trouble & Rapidly Rising COVID Creates New Headwinds

Alibaba: Buoyed By The Ending Crackdowns, Yet Expensive With No Turnaround in Sight For Cash Cows

Alibaba - OP Beat Driven By Cost Cutting Masks Dissapointments Everywhere Else

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s 3QFY23 results scheduled to release this Thursday is yet again going to be somewhat disappointing with our analysis indicating around RMB35.0bn OP cf. RMB49.7bn in 3QFY21.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, 3QFY23 results could beat the conservative consensus revenue estimate by 2.8% while the OP is likely to be in line with consensus.</li>
<li>Having risen 100%+ in few months, a small beat is unlikely to drive-up the share price any longer. Renewed US-China tensions are likely going to be a much bigger driver.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s 3QFY23 results scheduled to release this Thursday is yet again going to be somewhat disappointing with our analysis indicating around RMB35.0bn OP cf. RMB49.7bn in 3QFY21.
Nevertheless, 3QFY23 results could beat the conservative consensus revenue estimate by 2.8% while the OP is likely to be in line with consensus.
Having risen 100%+ in few months, a small beat is unlikely to drive-up the share price any longer. Renewed US-China tensions are likely going to be a much bigger driver.


Alibaba: A Mediocre Beat Won't Nullify Escalating US-China Tensions & A Deteriorating Core Business