Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

AI Sustainability: East Profits. West Burns.

Alibaba (9988 HK) Top Trades: Bullish Bias and Long Volatility Dominate

BYD (1211 HK) Top Trades: Bearish Positioning and Long Volatility Dominate

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s Q4 FY2026 headline was below, but core (impairment of AI Capex) was above as cloud revenue accelerated 40% YoY, driven by surging AI demand and faster-than-expected MaaS monetisation.</li>
<li>Management guided MaaS ARR above RMB30bn by end-2026, with AI becoming Alibaba Cloud’s primary revenue driver and margin expansion expected within coming quarters. AI monetisation is both real and self-sustainable. </li>
<li>Alibaba’s AI-cloud positioning, proprietary chip ecosystem, and strong balance sheet make the business increasingly attractive, while valuation remains undemanding for long-term investors. <strong>HKD150/share is an immediate target. </strong>
</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s Q4 FY2026 headline was below, but core (impairment of AI Capex) was above as cloud revenue accelerated 40% YoY, driven by surging AI demand and faster-than-expected MaaS monetisation.
Management guided MaaS ARR above RMB30bn by end-2026, with AI becoming Alibaba Cloud’s primary revenue driver and margin expansion expected within coming quarters. AI monetisation is both real and self-sustainable. 
Alibaba’s AI-cloud positioning, proprietary chip ecosystem, and strong balance sheet make the business increasingly attractive, while valuation remains undemanding for long-term investors. HKD150/share is an immediate target. 



Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) Q4 FY2026 Results: A Miss but AI Inflection Confirmed