Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Can US Curve Flattening Pull EM with It?

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries to Target for 2s5s Flatteners?

Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas Performance Summary – July 2021

Alpha Bites: Long Colombia 5s10s Steepener

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Two Rates Recommendations

Rates 10y Dashboard: Higher Risk Premium in Colombia’s Rates Than FX

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

FX & Rates

<p>In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate vs paying the 2-year rate in Colombia while keeping a slight receiving bias. Despite the recent flattening, Colombia's 2s5s curve slope is currently the steepest among liquid EM countries. The steepness was driven by the risk of potential rating downgrades to below sub-investment grade. With S&amp;P already downgrading Colombia but leaving the local debt above investment grade, we see this risk as low for now and the long end should continue to move lower. Meanwhile, the short end should feel the pressure from rising inflation.</p>

In this week’s Alpha Bites, we recommend receiving the 5-year rate vs paying the 2-year rate in Colombia while keeping a slight receiving bias. Despite the recent flattening, Colombia's 2s5s curve slope is currently the steepest among liquid EM countries. The steepness was driven by the risk of potential rating downgrades to below sub-investment grade. With S&amp;P already downgrading Colombia but leaving the local debt above investment grade, we see this risk as low for now and the long end should continue to move lower. Meanwhile, the short end should feel the pressure from rising inflation.

Alpha Bites: A 2s5s Flattener in Colombia with Receiving Bias

COP 5Y

Alpha Bites: A 2s5s Flattener in Colombia with Receiving Bias