Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

What to Expect of EM Rates When Expecting US Rates to Stay Volatile?

US: High Inflation, Rising Yields, Repeat

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Recommendation as Rates Move in Opposite Directions in India and Mexico

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Rates in Mexico have underperformed recently as the central bank delivered another 50 bp hike and the US curve is starting to price an increasing number of rate hikes.</li>
<li>The sell-off in Mexico looks overdone as inflation expectations remain well-anchored and the current pricing of rate hikes implies a real policy rate much higher than in the past.</li>
<li>Hedging the receiving position in Mexico with South Africa makes sense as US rates are vulnerable to a further correction and rates in South Africa have hardly sold off.</li>
</ul>


Rates in Mexico have underperformed recently as the central bank delivered another 50 bp hike and the US curve is starting to price an increasing number of rate hikes.
The sell-off in Mexico looks overdone as inflation expectations remain well-anchored and the current pricing of rate hikes implies a real policy rate much higher than in the past.
Hedging the receiving position in Mexico with South Africa makes sense as US rates are vulnerable to a further correction and rates in South Africa have hardly sold off.


Alpha Bites: Receive Mexico 5y Vs Pay South Africa 5y Local Rate

MXN 5Y

Alpha Bites: Receive Mexico 5y Vs Pay South Africa 5y Local Rate