Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Equity and credit research focused on value chains and capital structure. Experience across traditional metals, materials, advanced materials and industrial cyclicals. Built to Endure.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>EU ETS at €73–75/tCO₂ and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made carbon a real cost, but it has not forced capacity exit.</li>
<li>China, at roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, remains near full utilisation around the 44–45mt level. Global supply is therefore not constrained unless China tightens.</li>
<li>Despite disruption-driven price strength, broker estimates point to a 0.8mt aluminium surplus in 2026 and 1.6mt in 2027, reflecting higher supply and weaker China demand.</li>
</ul>


EU ETS at €73–75/tCO₂ and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) have made carbon a real cost, but it has not forced capacity exit.
China, at roughly 60% of global primary aluminium output, remains near full utilisation around the 44–45mt level. Global supply is therefore not constrained unless China tightens.
Despite disruption-driven price strength, broker estimates point to a 0.8mt aluminium surplus in 2026 and 1.6mt in 2027, reflecting higher supply and weaker China demand.


Aluminium: Output Holds Despite Rising Carbon Costs