TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Amazon 2Q22: Delivering an Inflection Point

Amazon 4Q21: Don’t Call It a Comeback, We’ve Been Here (Investing) For Years

Amazon 3Q21: 4Q’s $9 Billion Consumer Shock Absorber

Amazon 2Q21: Pay Attention to AWS and Advertising

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Promised operating leverage is pushed out until likely 3Q22, but only higher employee RSUs is a permanent inflationary impact.</li>
<li>Overcapacity is almost certainly transitory, as long as the retail business grows, this will be soaked up in a quarter or two.</li>
<li>AWS backlog is booming again. Amazon's current valuation = 12x forward AWS sales.</li>
</ul>


Promised operating leverage is pushed out until likely 3Q22, but only higher employee RSUs is a permanent inflationary impact.
Overcapacity is almost certainly transitory, as long as the retail business grows, this will be soaked up in a quarter or two.
AWS backlog is booming again. Amazon's current valuation = 12x forward AWS sales.


Amazon 1Q22: (Some) Cost Inflation Is Transitory, The Moat Is Not

Amazon.com Inc

Amazon 1Q22: (Some) Cost Inflation Is Transitory, The Moat Is Not