FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

High beta assets globally have significantly out-performed over recent months.  Emerging market equities, bonds and currencies have led the recovery since the Brexit vote.  They have been supported by fiscal and monetary policy easing, two strong US payrolls reports and other supporting US economic data including PMI surveys that suggest that the US economy is recovering solidly from a weak first half of the year. And recent PMI data from emerging markets that suggest they have stabilized and are now contributing to global growth again, including strong improvement in Brazil and Russia and stable China.  Information Technology equites are leading the global recovery and helping support demand for KRW and TWD currency and assets.  The USD has weakened against the rising in EM and commodity currencies as the preferred funding currency despite a recent modest improvement in its yield advantage against most currencies.  US rates have not yet risen sufficiently to force investors to consider alternative funding currencies.Ongoing uncertainty over policy direction in Japan and related volatility in the JPY and Japanese rates and bond yields is discouraging use of JPY as a potential funding currency, contributing to broader weakness in the USD that appears excessive in light of the improving prospects for the US economy and the risk that the Fed resumes rate hikes before year end. However, the market is still pricing in only a modest chance that the Fed hikes this year and has less than one full hike priced in over more than 18 months.  Most of the recent rise in USD term money market rates relate to tightening funding conditions for borrowing USD, rather than increasing expectations of Fed policy tightening.  Fed speakers have offered little indication that they have been moved by recent US and global events to consider raising rates sooner. The weaker trend in the USD is becoming more imbedded as the year progresses and may take some time to turn around, especially if Fed Chair Yellen remains lukewarm on the prospect for rate hikes over the cycle.  The improved state of investor confidence and upswing in emerging markets appears more resilient to the prospect of higher US rates and may continue to set the tone for the USD.

High beta assets globally have significantly out-performed over recent months.  Emerging market equities, bonds and currencies have led the recovery since the Brexit vote.  They have been supported by fiscal and monetary policy easing, two strong US payrolls reports and other supporting US economic data including PMI surveys that suggest that the US economy is recovering solidly from a weak first half of the year. And recent PMI data from emerging markets that suggest they have stabilized and are now contributing to global growth again, including strong improvement in Brazil and Russia and stable China.  Information Technology equites are leading the global recovery and helping support demand for KRW and TWD currency and assets.  The USD has weakened against the rising in EM and commodity currencies as the preferred funding currency despite a recent modest improvement in its yield advantage against most currencies.  US rates have not yet risen sufficiently to force investors to consider alternative funding currencies.Ongoing uncertainty over policy direction in Japan and related volatility in the JPY and Japanese rates and bond yields is discouraging use of JPY as a potential funding currency, contributing to broader weakness in the USD that appears excessive in light of the improving prospects for the US economy and the risk that the Fed resumes rate hikes before year end. However, the market is still pricing in only a modest chance that the Fed hikes this year and has less than one full hike priced in over more than 18 months.  Most of the recent rise in USD term money market rates relate to tightening funding conditions for borrowing USD, rather than increasing expectations of Fed policy tightening.  Fed speakers have offered little indication that they have been moved by recent US and global events to consider raising rates sooner. The weaker trend in the USD is becoming more imbedded as the year progresses and may take some time to turn around, especially if Fed Chair Yellen remains lukewarm on the prospect for rate hikes over the cycle.  The improved state of investor confidence and upswing in emerging markets appears more resilient to the prospect of higher US rates and may continue to set the tone for the USD.

AmpGFX - Emerging Markets Take Charge While Fed Free-Wheels