Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dec-25 (1Q26) results are 7% above Consensus, Mar-26 guidance 7% above Consensus. Revenue growth accelerated from ~6% in FY25 to ~15% in 1H26. For a company of that size: impressive.</li>
<li>IPhone revenue up 23%, China 38% YoY. “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” can continue into Mar-Jun-26. Part of Mar-26 strengths comes from supply constraints in Dec-25 (i.e. TSMC 3nm).</li>
<li>Consensus should be ~5-7% too low on FY26. This doesn’t mean that FY27-28 will also increase: Apple is a product-cycle company. Valuations high, as usual: 30x forward EPS.</li>
</ul>


Dec-25 (1Q26) results are 7% above Consensus, Mar-26 guidance 7% above Consensus. Revenue growth accelerated from ~6% in FY25 to ~15% in 1H26. For a company of that size: impressive.
IPhone revenue up 23%, China 38% YoY. “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” can continue into Mar-Jun-26. Part of Mar-26 strengths comes from supply constraints in Dec-25 (i.e. TSMC 3nm).
Consensus should be ~5-7% too low on FY26. This doesn’t mean that FY27-28 will also increase: Apple is a product-cycle company. Valuations high, as usual: 30x forward EPS.


Apple: Very Good Quarter Driven by IPhone. Consensus Should Revise up FY26 by 5-7%