Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.</li>
<li>Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.</li>
<li>Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.


ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth