Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.</li>
<li>Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.</li>
<li>Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.


ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.</li>
<li>This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.</li>
<li>While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.</li>
</ul>


The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.


Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nippon Steel targets over 100 Mt capacity by 2030, focusing on global growth as Japan’s domestic demand shrinks.</li>
<li>It plans to acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9B and expand in India via AMNS joint ventures.</li>
<li>FY24 profit rose 36%, but export reliance, ESG lag, and U.S. deal hurdles pose risks.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Steel targets over 100 Mt capacity by 2030, focusing on global growth as Japan’s domestic demand shrinks.
It plans to acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9B and expand in India via AMNS joint ventures.
FY24 profit rose 36%, but export reliance, ESG lag, and U.S. deal hurdles pose risks.


Nippon Steel (5401 JP): Navigating Decline at Home, Expanding Abroad

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcelormittal-sa-8b816bb6-eb73-416f-a30a-56f93d1deb03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38577:1" rel="noopener">ArcelorMittal (MT US)</a> reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.</li>
<li>Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. </li>
<li>Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> </li>
</ul>



ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. 
Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) 


ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

Luxembourg

ArcelorMittal produces steel. The Company manufactures cold rolled, electrogalvanized and coated steels, slabs, bars, and wire rods. ArcelorMittal serves customers worldwide.

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ArcelorMittal (MT NA)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth

Positive Q1 performance sets stage for Q2 EBITDA growth driven by European spread recovery, healthy orders, and India-focused capex targets. Stock...

Rahul Jain

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

Nippon Steel (5401 JP): Navigating Decline at Home, Expanding Abroad

Nippon Steel aims for global growth with plans to expand capacity, acquire U.S. Steel, and focus on India joint ventures, despite risks of export...

Rahul Jain

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth

​Positive Q1 performance sets stage for Q2 EBITDA growth driven by European spread recovery, healthy orders, and India-focused capex targets. Stock...

Rahul Jain

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

​Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

Nippon Steel (5401 JP): Navigating Decline at Home, Expanding Abroad

​Nippon Steel aims for global growth with plans to expand capacity, acquire U.S. Steel, and focus on India joint ventures, despite risks of export...

Rahul Jain

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

​ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...

Rahul Jain

Positive Q1 performance sets stage for Q2 EBITDA growth driven by European spread recovery, healthy orders, and India-focused capex targets. Stock...

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nippon Steel aims for global growth with plans to expand capacity, acquire U.S. Steel, and focus on India joint ventures, despite risks of export...

ArcelorMittal reports EBITDA decline for third year, targets strategic growth in 2025/2026. Expects positive global demand growth and trades at...