New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Arvida Group's (ARV) 4Q investor update gave us three main takeaways; (1) demand remains strong with the number of resales largely flat versus 2H22 (albeit we acknowledge two extra months of Arena Living), with both margins and price coming in ahead of our expectations and up versus last year.</li><li>(2) New sales were weaker than anticipated with substantially fewer unit sales at lower margins but at higher prices; we believe the miss relative to our expectations relates to fewer care suites sold and a large proportion of deliveries weighted towards the very end of the financial year.</li><li>(3) ARV is slowing down development. ARV delivered 215 units in FY23, below our 270 unit forecast and its 250 unit guidance as the delivery of 57 apartments in Aria Bay has been pushed to June 2023</li></ul>

Arvida Group's (ARV) 4Q investor update gave us three main takeaways; (1) demand remains strong with the number of resales largely flat versus 2H22 (albeit we acknowledge two extra months of Arena Living), with both margins and price coming in ahead of our expectations and up versus last year.(2) New sales were weaker than anticipated with substantially fewer unit sales at lower margins but at higher prices; we believe the miss relative to our expectations relates to fewer care suites sold and a large proportion of deliveries weighted towards the very end of the financial year.(3) ARV is slowing down development. ARV delivered 215 units in FY23, below our 270 unit forecast and its 250 unit guidance as the delivery of 57 apartments in Aria Bay has been pushed to June 2023

Arvida

Arvida Group: Q4 Update; So Far No Drama