Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Asahi Group Holdings Placement: Attractive For Newcomers & Irritating For Old-Timers

Long Kirin/​Short Asahi While Tokyo Olympics Hangs In Doubt

Asahi Raises Domestic Beverage Prices: Elastic “Beer” Demand Makes the Price Hike Unfavourable

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>’s 1Q22 OP of ¥9.0bn from ¥496.9bn revenue was significantly below the consensus OP of ¥34.0bn from ¥489.4bn revenue.</li>
<li>Yet the company maintained its aggressive 2022 guidance, which expects domestic beer volume growth while prices are scheduled to increase by 6-10%.</li>
<li>We don’t find this estimate credible, especially given that Asahi generates most of the domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)’s 1Q22 OP of ¥9.0bn from ¥496.9bn revenue was significantly below the consensus OP of ¥34.0bn from ¥489.4bn revenue.
Yet the company maintained its aggressive 2022 guidance, which expects domestic beer volume growth while prices are scheduled to increase by 6-10%.
We don’t find this estimate credible, especially given that Asahi generates most of the domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.


Asahi: More Downside Left After Maintaining The Optimistic 2022 Guidance