Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri, with nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan.

Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients. Manishi's Asia ex Japan equity model portfolio consistently generated significantly higher returns than the benchmark MSCI index over a decade. In addition to the macro strategy product, Manishi regularly publishes on key thematic ideas, creating custom baskets for investors.

A frequent participant in discussions in the print and electronic media, Manishi has been frequently interviewed by Bloomberg TV, CNBC, CNBC Arabia, Asharq Bloomberg, CNBC TV18, ET Now, NDTV Profit and several other channels. He has been widely quoted in Financial Times, Thomson Reuters, Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, Barron's, Forbes India, The Economic Times, Business Standard and other leading publications.

Chief Executive Officer

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

Asian Equity: Changes to Model Portfolio: Korea, HK/CN Overweight. India Neutral; ASEAN Underweight

China Heavy Machinery Sector: Anticipating More Upside

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.</li>
<li>We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.</li>
<li>An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t <em>always</em> do so.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.


FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis