Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri, with nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan.

Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients. Manishi's Asia ex Japan equity model portfolio consistently generated significantly higher returns than the benchmark MSCI index over a decade. In addition to the macro strategy product, Manishi regularly publishes on key thematic ideas, creating custom baskets for investors.

A frequent participant in discussions in the print and electronic media, Manishi has been frequently interviewed by Bloomberg TV, CNBC, CNBC Arabia, Asharq Bloomberg, CNBC TV18, ET Now, NDTV Profit and several other channels. He has been widely quoted in Financial Times, Thomson Reuters, Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, Barron's, Forbes India, The Economic Times, Business Standard and other leading publications.

Chief Executive Officer

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Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. </li>
<li>Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.
Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. 
Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets