European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.</li>
<li>KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.</li>
<li>The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.</li>
</ul>


PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.


Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

Assura PLC

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price