European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The deal has moved into its closing stretch, with process milestones largely secured. From here, this feels more like a basis clean-up than a binary event, with execution discipline paramount.</li>
<li>Value now leans on PHP shares rather than regulatory drama. Hedging the stock leg frames the opportunity; avoiding complexity and timing slippage likely matters more than squeezing every basis point.</li>
<li>Squeeze-Out is advancing; settlement expected in October as delisting completes. I recommend treating CMA headlines as background noise and keeping sizing disciplined.</li>
</ul>


The deal has moved into its closing stretch, with process milestones largely secured. From here, this feels more like a basis clean-up than a binary event, with execution discipline paramount.
Value now leans on PHP shares rather than regulatory drama. Hedging the stock leg frames the opportunity; avoiding complexity and timing slippage likely matters more than squeezing every basis point.
Squeeze-Out is advancing; settlement expected in October as delisting completes. I recommend treating CMA headlines as background noise and keeping sizing disciplined.


Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

<ul>
<li>PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.</li>
<li>KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.</li>
<li>The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.</li>
</ul>


PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.


Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

<ul>
<li>KKR’s firm cash bid of 50.24p offers a modest +0.56% premium to Assura’s current price, anchoring downside risk in this live UK REIT takeover contest.</li>
<li>PHP’s offer implies upside only if its share price rebounds; spread turns positive beyond 98p, with optionality up to +7.4% if PHP retests its six-month high.</li>
<li>Limited arbitrage remains, but a final round auction or revised bid could unlock renewed spread capture; monitor deal calendar ahead of the 12 August offer deadline.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s firm cash bid of 50.24p offers a modest +0.56% premium to Assura’s current price, anchoring downside risk in this live UK REIT takeover contest.
PHP’s offer implies upside only if its share price rebounds; spread turns positive beyond 98p, with optionality up to +7.4% if PHP retests its six-month high.
Limited arbitrage remains, but a final round auction or revised bid could unlock renewed spread capture; monitor deal calendar ahead of the 12 August offer deadline.


Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

<ul>
<li>Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.</li>
<li>With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.</li>
<li>Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.</li>
</ul>


Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.
With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.
Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.


Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

<ul>
<li>KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.</li>
<li>PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.</li>
<li>The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.


United Kingdom

Assura PLC is a primary healthcare property group. The Company is a long-term investor and developer of primary care property. Assura works with general practitioners, health professionals and National Health Services to deliver patient care. The properties are leased to General practitioner practices and Primary Care Trusts.

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Assura PLC (AGR LN)

Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

Assura/PHP heading into endgame: squeeze-out advancing, October settlement in view. This is a basis clean-up, not a binary bet—execution and hedge...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

Assura’s takeover battle is heating up with PHP’s growing support (8.82% acceptances) and KKR’s all-cash offer providing immediate value. A...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

KKR offers a bid floor; PHP needs a rally or sweetener to compete. At 49.96p, Assura trades just below both. Optionality remains if a revision or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura is the target of a rare UK real estate bidding war. With KKR offering certainty and PHP offering a higher blended price, arbitrage investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura in the Crosshairs

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

Assura/PHP heading into endgame: squeeze-out advancing, October settlement in view. This is a basis clean-up, not a binary bet—execution and hedge...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

Assura’s takeover battle is heating up with PHP’s growing support (8.82% acceptances) and KKR’s all-cash offer providing immediate value. A...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

KKR offers a bid floor; PHP needs a rally or sweetener to compete. At 49.96p, Assura trades just below both. Optionality remains if a revision or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura is the target of a rare UK real estate bidding war. With KKR offering certainty and PHP offering a higher blended price, arbitrage investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura in the Crosshairs

​KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...