Astellas 1H FY18 (YE Mar'19) Results - First Glance

Astellas FY17 Results and FY18e Guidance – No Major Surprise

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Japan Pharma - FY17e Earnings Preview (I)

Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1">Astellas Pharma Inc (4503 JP)</a> announced it FY18-20e mid-term plan on May 22, 2018</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 308.5px;">Mid-Term Financial Forecast</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 231px;"> </td>
<td style="width: 77.5px;">FY20           PA Est.</td>
<td style="width: 91.5px;">FY20           Co. Est.</td>
<td style="width: 64px;">% ∆</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 231px;">Sales (¥b)</td>
<td style="width: 77.5px;">1285</td>
<td style="width: 91.5px;">1,300</td>
<td style="width: 64px;">1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 231px;">R&amp;D Exp  (¥b)</td>
<td style="width: 77.5px;">226</td>
<td style="width: 91.5px;">200+</td>
<td style="width: 64px;">7-10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 231px;">Core Op Profit  %</td>
<td style="width: 77.5px;">19%</td>
<td style="width: 91.5px;">20%</td>
<td style="width: 64px;">5.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="3" style="width: 393px;">Key Drug Peak Sales Potential (¥b)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;"><strong>Drug</strong></td>
<td style="width: 94px;"><strong>Status</strong></td>
<td style="width: 73px;"><strong>PA Est.*</strong></td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;"><strong>Co. Est.</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;">Xtandi</td>
<td style="width: 94px;">Marketed</td>
<td style="width: 73px;">425</td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;">400-500</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;">Gilteritinib</td>
<td style="width: 94px;">Filed</td>
<td style="width: 73px;">70</td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;">50-100</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;">Roxadustat</td>
<td style="width: 94px;">PhIII</td>
<td style="width: 73px;">45</td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;">NA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;">IMAB362 </td>
<td style="width: 94px;">PhIII</td>
<td style="width: 73px;">100</td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;">100-200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;">Fezolinetant</td>
<td style="width: 94px;">PhII</td>
<td style="width: 73px;">NA</td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;">200-300</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 226px;">Enfortumab Vedotin</td>
<td style="width: 94px;">PhII</td>
<td style="width: 73px;">NA</td>
<td style="width: 73.5px;">50-100</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><ul><li>While our FY20e sales estimates are in-line with the company…</li></ul>

Astellas Pharma Inc (4503 JP) announced it FY18-20e mid-term plan on May 22, 2018

Mid-Term Financial Forecast


 
FY20           PA Est.
FY20           Co. Est.
% ∆


Sales (¥b)
1285
1,300
1.2%


R&amp;D Exp  (¥b)
226
200+
7-10%


Core Op Profit  %
19%
20%
5.8%



Key Drug Peak Sales Potential (¥b)


Drug
Status
PA Est.*
Co. Est.


Xtandi
Marketed
425
400-500


Gilteritinib
Filed
70
50-100


Roxadustat
PhIII
45
NA


IMAB362 
PhIII
100
100-200


Fezolinetant
PhII
NA
200-300


Enfortumab Vedotin
PhII
NA
50-100

While our FY20e sales estimates are in-line with the company…

Astellas Mid-Term Plan FY18-FY20e: Concerns Remain Over Growth Post-Xtandi LOE