TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Microsoft Got Game! Plans to Buy Activision Blizzard for $95/Share or $68.7 Billion

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TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We owned Activision for many years until the pandemic when our thought was that like Netflix Activision had likely pulled in demand and would be enjoying a peak in near term earnings. The controversy around its work environment has provided an entry point for one of the best video game franchises as it is trading at 19x forward earnings, below even the March 2020 at the pandemic low. Given the stock’s longterm average of 25-26x, we think the risk reward here is compelling.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We owned Activision for many years until the pandemic when our thought was that like Netflix Activision had likely pulled in demand and would be enjoying a peak in near term earnings. The controversy around its work environment has provided an entry point for one of the best video game franchises as it is trading at 19x forward earnings, below even the March 2020 at the pandemic low. Given the stock’s longterm average of 25-26x, we think the risk reward here is compelling.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc (TTWO US)

Activision Blizzard

ATVI 2Q21: Its Time to Buy Activision