New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has published very strong aeronautical pricing for the next four years, well above our and market expectations.</li><li>However, the level of targeted return (~8.7% vs our 7.9% assumption) for PSE4 (price setting event 4 covering FY23-FY27), which drives the pricing decision, risks the Commerce Commission’s (ComCom’s) wrath, when it reviews AIA’s pricing over the next 12 months.</li><li>Irrespective of any ComCom/government driven adjustment to pricing part way through PSE4 (as what happened through PSE3) aeronautical pricing would still be above our expectations given higher RAB growth than forecast.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has published very strong aeronautical pricing for the next four years, well above our and market expectations.However, the level of targeted return (~8.7% vs our 7.9% assumption) for PSE4 (price setting event 4 covering FY23-FY27), which drives the pricing decision, risks the Commerce Commission’s (ComCom’s) wrath, when it reviews AIA’s pricing over the next 12 months.Irrespective of any ComCom/government driven adjustment to pricing part way through PSE4 (as what happened through PSE3) aeronautical pricing would still be above our expectations given higher RAB growth than forecast.

Auckland Intl Airport

Auckland Airport: Strong Aero Repricing