Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

China’s Yuan Woes/Pollution Costs/Bond Defaults/Financial Risks/Iron Ore

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

The impact of quantitative tightening by the Fed on global liquidity will depend heavily on the nature of prevailing exchange rate regimes as the primary transmission mechanism.Major currencies under a floating exchange rate regime, notably the dollar, euro and yen, have seen their share of global GDP decline since 2007.China’s decision to manage the yuan versus a basket of currencies vis-à-vis solely the US dollar in 2015 has subsequently produced higher interest rates and exchange rate volatility due to a higher risk premium.Further dollar strength will tighten liquidity in emerging markets, involving a higher Fed policy rate directly impacting syndicated loans, while the impact on corporate bonds will be more nuanced.Given her economy’s importance to emerging markets and the global system, China’s attempts to curb excessive credit expansion remains the most plausible source for unanticipated global financial market turbulence.

The impact of quantitative tightening by the Fed on global liquidity will depend heavily on the nature of prevailing exchange rate regimes as the primary transmission mechanism.Major currencies under a floating exchange rate regime, notably the dollar, euro and yen, have seen their share of global GDP decline since 2007.China’s decision to manage the yuan versus a basket of currencies vis-à-vis solely the US dollar in 2015 has subsequently produced higher interest rates and exchange rate volatility due to a higher risk premium.Further dollar strength will tighten liquidity in emerging markets, involving a higher Fed policy rate directly impacting syndicated loans, while the impact on corporate bonds will be more nuanced.Given her economy’s importance to emerging markets and the global system, China’s attempts to curb excessive credit expansion remains the most plausible source for unanticipated global financial market turbulence.

Avoiding a Global Liquidity Crunch: China Remains the Key Wildcard