Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Buy-side investment professional focused on listed equities, combining bottom-up fundamental analysis with macroeconomic and capital allocation perspectives. I focus on intrinsic value, valuation, catalysts, downside risk, and the gap between fundamentals and market expectations, with the objective of identifying mispriced opportunities and translating research into disciplined investment decisions. 15+ years of experience across Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance, private investment, and independent research.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-bank-central-asia-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>  earnings engine remains intact—CASA above 85%, loans regaining share, and ROE near 22%—despite an NIM recovery that remains unproven.</li>
<li>Our fair value range is Rp4,928–Rp7,965, with Base Case at Rp6,520 versus the Rp6,700 reference price—downside skews larger than upside.</li>
<li>The 2024 peak price was supported by NIM expansion (+30bps) and CIR improvement (-2.6pp); today, NIM is 50bps lower and loan growth has slowed to ~8%, narrowing upside.</li>
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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)  earnings engine remains intact—CASA above 85%, loans regaining share, and ROE near 22%—despite an NIM recovery that remains unproven.
Our fair value range is Rp4,928–Rp7,965, with Base Case at Rp6,520 versus the Rp6,700 reference price—downside skews larger than upside.
The 2024 peak price was supported by NIM expansion (+30bps) and CIR improvement (-2.6pp); today, NIM is 50bps lower and loan growth has slowed to ~8%, narrowing upside.


Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) — Priced As If Today Lasts Forever?