IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

Arun has over 15 years’ experience covering the Technology sector. During this time, he has worked with technology start-ups and as an equity analyst in investment banks and independent research firms. He was formerly a Technology Analyst for Canaccord Genuity, Altium Securities, Espirito Santo Investment Bank, Noble Group and Clear Capital. He has a dual Master’s degree in Financial Engineering and Industrial and Operations Engineering from the University of Michigan. He obtained his Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay. He is also a CFA charterholder.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

BASE (4477 JP): Maki's Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Tender Extension Signals a Price Bump Is Needed

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Maki-San likely holds around 28% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.</li>
<li>SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.</li>
<li>At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.</li>
</ul>


Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.


BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In