European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Evonik rejected BASF's reported €22.15 approach; €24–27 looks achievable without stretching the valuation, with €25 our base case.</li>
<li>At €25, BASF pays 7.17x FY26E EBITDA, falling to 6.06x after €400m synergies, while RAG's 43.8% stake is worth €5.10bn.</li>
<li>We derive a €23.00 target price from our scenario analysis, 15.8% above €19.84, with a 70% probability assigned to a transaction.</li>
</ul>


Evonik rejected BASF's reported €22.15 approach; €24–27 looks achievable without stretching the valuation, with €25 our base case.
At €25, BASF pays 7.17x FY26E EBITDA, falling to 6.06x after €400m synergies, while RAG's 43.8% stake is worth €5.10bn.
We derive a €23.00 target price from our scenario analysis, 15.8% above €19.84, with a 70% probability assigned to a transaction.


BASF/Evonik: €22.15 Looks Like an Opening Bid

Evonik Industries

BASF/Evonik: €22.15 Looks Like an Opening Bid