European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Bavarian Nordic: Event-Driven Bid with Strategic Block, Bull Case Supports Sweetening

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bidders Nordic Capital and Permira raised their offer to DKK 250/share (from DKK 233), but ATP’s 10% block and limited irrevocables complicate closing.</li>
<li>Gross spread has widened to 5.71% (DKK 236.5 close on 28 Oct), reflecting rising uncertainty. Implied success probability is now ~76.5%.</li>
<li>High upside if completed, but downside risk remains to pre-deal levels (DKK 192.5). Time to settlement is short, pushing annualized return to ~151%.</li>
</ul>


Bidders Nordic Capital and Permira raised their offer to DKK 250/share (from DKK 233), but ATP’s 10% block and limited irrevocables complicate closing.
Gross spread has widened to 5.71% (DKK 236.5 close on 28 Oct), reflecting rising uncertainty. Implied success probability is now ~76.5%.
High upside if completed, but downside risk remains to pre-deal levels (DKK 192.5). Time to settlement is short, pushing annualized return to ~151%.


Bavarian Nordic A/S

Bavarian Nordic: Final Offer, Tight Math