Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Buy-side investment professional focused on listed equities, combining bottom-up fundamental analysis with macroeconomic and capital allocation perspectives. I focus on intrinsic value, valuation, catalysts, downside risk, and the gap between fundamentals and market expectations, with the objective of identifying mispriced opportunities and translating research into disciplined investment decisions. 15+ years of experience across Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance, private investment, and independent research.

Equity Bottom-Up

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Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.</li>
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 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.</li>
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 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.</li>
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Bottom line: BBNI is the only one of Indonesia’s four largest banks below book value (0.76x versus BMRI 1.34x, BBRI 1.48x, BBCA 2.76x); we rate it BULLISH, moderate-to-low conviction.

 What the price implies: at Rp3,430, a perpetual ROE of about 9.9% — below FY2025 normalized ROE of 12.89% and the 1H26 run-rate of roughly 12.7%–12.9%.

 Why conviction is low: funding, margin and capital pressure has not been shown to stop; scenarios are model assumptions, not forecasts, and do not show earning power has stabilized.


BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power

Bank Negara Indonesia

BBNI IJ: When Credit Growth Outruns Earning Power