Indonesian Equities | Buy-Side Investment Research

Defriansyah Has

Buy-side investment professional focused on listed equities, combining bottom-up fundamental analysis with macroeconomic and capital allocation perspectives. I focus on intrinsic value, valuation, catalysts, downside risk, and the gap between fundamentals and market expectations, with the objective of identifying mispriced opportunities and translating research into disciplined investment decisions. 15+ years of experience across Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance, private investment, and independent research.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
$BBRI is still growing, with loans up 12.23% YoY in 5M26. But the economics are deteriorating: NIM fell to 5.87%, while May-26 credit costs moved beyond the historical range.</li>
<li>A high payout ratio leaves only 7.98% of earnings retained, implying just 1.39% internal growth and raising the question of how sustained book-value growth can be financed.</li>
<li>Our Residual Income Model estimates intrinsic value at Rp2,952–Rp3,710, with the valuation less sensitive to near-term ROE recovery than the operating outlook suggests.</li>
</ul>



$BBRI is still growing, with loans up 12.23% YoY in 5M26. But the economics are deteriorating: NIM fell to 5.87%, while May-26 credit costs moved beyond the historical range.
A high payout ratio leaves only 7.98% of earnings retained, implying just 1.39% internal growth and raising the question of how sustained book-value growth can be financed.
Our Residual Income Model estimates intrinsic value at Rp2,952–Rp3,710, with the valuation less sensitive to near-term ROE recovery than the operating outlook suggests.


BBRI:IJ— The Growth Cannot Be Financed Twice

Bank Rakyat Indonesia

BBRI:IJ— The Growth Cannot Be Financed Twice