European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

Event-Driven

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA pivots decisively from failed M&amp;A to its largest-ever buyback, closing the Sabadell chapter and restoring capital-return clarity. The shift reshapes both valuation optics and near-term trading dynamics.</li>
<li>EPS and ROE accretion are mechanically meaningful, but the real event-driven angle lies in timing: accelerating capital return materially shortens the path from capital generation to per-share value.</li>
<li>A sustained buyback equivalent to ~8–10% of daily liquidity introduces ongoing technical support, reduces uncertainty-driven under-ownership, and sets up incremental flow-driven upside rather than a one-off re-rating.</li>
</ul>


BBVA pivots decisively from failed M&amp;A to its largest-ever buyback, closing the Sabadell chapter and restoring capital-return clarity. The shift reshapes both valuation optics and near-term trading dynamics.
EPS and ROE accretion are mechanically meaningful, but the real event-driven angle lies in timing: accelerating capital return materially shortens the path from capital generation to per-share value.
A sustained buyback equivalent to ~8–10% of daily liquidity introduces ongoing technical support, reduces uncertainty-driven under-ownership, and sets up incremental flow-driven upside rather than a one-off re-rating.


Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari

BBVA: Capital, Not Consolidation