Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Mr. Cunningham is a CFA Charterholder with over 15 years of experience as an equity research analyst, mostly on the sell side at investment banks, including Goldman and Jefferies, and with some time on the buy side. He has covered the consumer, telecoms, financials, energy and mining sectors, with a focus mainly on Southeast Asia, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Iron Ore Monthly (April 2026): Skew Repricing and Lower IV Point to Moderating Expectations Into Q3

Elevated Iron Ore Prices Leave Limited Headroom Without a Fresh Market Trigger

Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Operational results for Q1/26 (fiscal Q3/26) were muted with iron ore production near flat yoy, copper and steelmaking coal down and only energy coal rising significantly </li>
<li>The company noted the completion of iron ore sales contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group, finally removing that over six-month overhang on the price </li>
<li>We still see downside risk from iron ore and copper prices and deteriorating macro as insufficiently priced in at valuations that are towards the high end of the past decade </li>
</ul>


Operational results for Q1/26 (fiscal Q3/26) were muted with iron ore production near flat yoy, copper and steelmaking coal down and only energy coal rising significantly 
The company noted the completion of iron ore sales contract negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group, finally removing that over six-month overhang on the price 
We still see downside risk from iron ore and copper prices and deteriorating macro as insufficiently priced in at valuations that are towards the high end of the past decade 


BHP Group Ltd

BHP: Q1/26 Production Growth Muted