Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

What NVIDIA Has to Commit to Deliver 70% Growth

Compute Futures and the Market Price of GPU Obsolescence

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Macau Semiconductors and semiconductor equipment / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>According to WSJ article, AI off-balance-sheet obligations hit $3tn — 5× reported capex and 3× on-balance-sheet debt; the real leverage story lives buried in the footnotes.</li>
<li>However, the nine-company cohort is not one story: Nvidia and Broadcom benefit from supply demand; Oracle is distressed; Alphabet and Amazon face the sharpest FCF pressure.</li>
<li>Anthropic and OpenAI’s accelerating ARR growth is bullish: AI is monetising faster than debt tightens. The key question is whether ROI arrives before Oracle’s covenants tighten.</li>
</ul>


According to WSJ article, AI off-balance-sheet obligations hit $3tn — 5× reported capex and 3× on-balance-sheet debt; the real leverage story lives buried in the footnotes.
However, the nine-company cohort is not one story: Nvidia and Broadcom benefit from supply demand; Oracle is distressed; Alphabet and Amazon face the sharpest FCF pressure.
Anthropic and OpenAI’s accelerating ARR growth is bullish: AI is monetising faster than debt tightens. The key question is whether ROI arrives before Oracle’s covenants tighten.


Big Tech's $3tn Shadow Balance Sheet: AI's Hidden Leverage Crisis and the Shareholder Return Dilemma