Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.</li><li>Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.</li><li>Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.</li></ul><p></p>

CFOs keep telling the BoE their prices will rise by 3.5% in 2026, with wage increases similarly substantial. There has been no significant break lower in over 18 months.Employment plans have also deteriorated, lending some support to the dovish case as well. But this side is an unreliable signal, while inflation has proved brutally accurate.Doves need the employment aspect to be true, but the transmission to prices not to be. This survey signals upside inflation risks that should discourage rate cuts in 2026.

BoE Survey Says Stagflation Survives