Unexpected Election Results Put Spotlight on Brexit

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As the UK is set to leave the EU, we can examine the potential impact of Brexit on retail sales of FMCG companies covered in Passport. The exact shape and form of Brexit involves many assumptions – it’s not clear at this point what deal the UK will get with the EU, or whether there will be no deal and trade will default to WTO conditions, along with the presence of other uncertainties. Euromonitor is working on the Macro Shocks model to help quantify these effects. Briefly there are three components in the model:</p><ol><li>Macroeconomic scenario forecasts for GDP, inflation and exchange rates from the Macro Model;</li><li>Country/category footprint of company retail sales from Competitor Analytics;</li><li>Category elasticities to income (GDP proxy) – to quantify the sensitivity of demand in relation to changes in GDP – coming from Industry Forecast Models.</li></ol>

As the UK is set to leave the EU, we can examine the potential impact of Brexit on retail sales of FMCG companies covered in Passport. The exact shape and form of Brexit involves many assumptions – it’s not clear at this point what deal the UK will get with the EU, or whether there will be no deal and trade will default to WTO conditions, along with the presence of other uncertainties. Euromonitor is working on the Macro Shocks model to help quantify these effects. Briefly there are three components in the model:Macroeconomic scenario forecasts for GDP, inflation and exchange rates from the Macro Model;Country/category footprint of company retail sales from Competitor Analytics;Category elasticities to income (GDP proxy) – to quantify the sensitivity of demand in relation to changes in GDP – coming from Industry Forecast Models.

Brexit and Its Impact on the Largest FMCG Companies

Nestle SA

Brexit and Its Impact on the Largest FMCG Companies