New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Building Weekly</h2>
<h3>New Zealand</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Strong finish to 2020 for the housing market</strong> (REINZ, Dec.): House sales up +1.9% mom, +36.6% yoy (previous +3.4% mom, +33.0% yoy); days to sell in Auckland -5 yoy to 29 (vs. long-term average 35), ex-Auckland -4 to 26 (vs. long-term average 42). House prices +2.4% mom, +17.3% yoy (previous +3.1% mom, +15.1% yoy), with Auckland +18.1% yoy and ex-Auckland +16.6% yoy.</li>
<li><strong>Rent growth largely back to pre-COVID levels</strong> (Dec.): 3m rolling average rents – Auckland +0.2% yoy,&nbsp; Wellington +3.7% yoy, rest of North Island +7.0% yoy, Canterbury +1.4% yoy, and rest of South Island -2.3% yoy.</li>
<li><strong>Residential consents reach 44k annualised</strong> (Nov.): +1.2% mom, +23.6% yoy (previous +8.9% mom, +12.9% yoy) with rolling 12m total up +4.2% to 38.6k. Non-residential mixed: value consented up +14.8% yoy with sqm down -19.9% taking the past 12 months to -6% and -23% respectively.</li>
<li><strong>Construction sector confident, capacity utilisation at record highs</strong> (QSBZ, 4Q20): “The building sector remains the most optimistic of the sectors surveyed, as strong construction demand supports a lift in confidence. With the pipeline of residential, non-residential and Government construction work increasing, building sector firms are hiring to keep up with demand. The rebound in construction activity is driving capacity utilisation in the sector to record highs.” <a href="https://nzier.org.nz/media/NZIER%E2%80%99s%20QSBO%20shows%20increased%20construction%20demand%20driving%20improved%20sentiment" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nzier.org.nz/media/NZIER%25E2%2580%2599s%2520QSBO%2520shows%2520increased%2520construction%2520demand%2520driving%2520improved%2520sentiment&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611186608453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHAofmJG503ECc06uqZyOCn0WVFog" rel="noopener">(link)</a></li>
<li><strong>Banks cut mortgage rates</strong>: ANZ has matched Westpac's one year fixed rate 'special' of 2.29% <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-wars-anz-matches-record-low-westpac-interest-rate/SRV6LBVCJ4BWQ4TSNTLRE6QUVY/" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-wars-anz-matches-record-low-westpac-interest-rate/SRV6LBVCJ4BWQ4TSNTLRE6QUVY/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611186608453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEcaEx_VXdfAu1MgaoDcoXNj7f0AA" rel="noopener">(link)</a></li>
<li><strong>Economists lift OCR forecasts</strong>: 'Monetary policy is working', ANZ no longer forecasting a negative OCR <a href="https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2021/ANZ-OCRCallChange-20210113.pdf" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2021/ANZ-OCRCallChange-20210113.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1611186608453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGSKMu2bVF3ULvt4NhfkYPGyRtgPQ" rel="noopener">(link)</a></li>
</ul>
<h3>Australia</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>Detached dwellings underpin strong residential approvals</strong> (Nov.): +2.6% mom, +15.0% yoy (previous +3.3% mom, +15.6% yoy) including multi-tenanted -12.2% yoy and detached dwellings +34.5%. Soft month for non-residential: -27.4% mom, -7.1% yoy. Past 12 months -3.5% yoy.</li>
<li><strong>Buoyant approvals lead indicator</strong> (Construction finance approvals, Nov): +7.2% mom, +99.0% yoy (previous +11.5% mom, +82.8% yoy).</li>
<li><strong>New home sales spring to 20-year high</strong> (Dec.): Detached dwellings +91.8% mom, +203.2% yoy (previous +15.2% mom, +61.3% yoy).</li>
</ul>
<h3>International</h3>
<ul>
<li><strong>China: Construction activity recovery continues</strong> (Dec.): Total building starts -1.2% yoy (previous -2.0%) with residential -1.9% (previous -2.7%), office -6.8% yoy (previous -8.0%) and business buildings -4.9% (previous -5.3%).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Chart of the week: Rent growth largely back to pre-COVID levels but Auckland still muted</strong></p>
<p>Change in residential rents</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1689361008243264413&amp;th=1771d0e2e9bc4b9d&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ_lNmUBYc6ZezfYictjC773_ijNNtAlSrsOx9X3AyTyRlo9QBwcS-esS5iQ51mmfIvZ6h_ypjPxTkiBT6_AKcignK6TyTg1oLnMh5DVXuMxF4gx9wOXSb7qfTc&amp;disp=emb" width="454" height="302" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-image-whitelisted=""></figure>
<p>Source:&nbsp;Statistics NZ,&nbsp;Forsyth Barr analysis</p>
<p><strong>Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp;</strong><br>Senior Analyst, Equities</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.1&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1689361008243264413&amp;th=1771d0e2e9bc4b9d&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ-JKC7NcP86-DyN_XQUWT52tcporM8qDSgTGbukmYMW3AK4wdReLcGB2bTddx_iY15HX_eN17_ETQvVF907cvNkiiz9Uj5BAYcsksD9_vTiquoDNt_lCLn82VM&amp;disp=emb" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
<p><br>P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp;<br>Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland</p>

Building Weekly
New Zealand

Strong finish to 2020 for the housing market (REINZ, Dec.): House sales up +1.9% mom, +36.6% yoy (previous +3.4% mom, +33.0% yoy); days to sell in Auckland -5 yoy to 29 (vs. long-term average 35), ex-Auckland -4 to 26 (vs. long-term average 42). House prices +2.4% mom, +17.3% yoy (previous +3.1% mom, +15.1% yoy), with Auckland +18.1% yoy and ex-Auckland +16.6% yoy.
Rent growth largely back to pre-COVID levels (Dec.): 3m rolling average rents – Auckland +0.2% yoy,&nbsp; Wellington +3.7% yoy, rest of North Island +7.0% yoy, Canterbury +1.4% yoy, and rest of South Island -2.3% yoy.
Residential consents reach 44k annualised (Nov.): +1.2% mom, +23.6% yoy (previous +8.9% mom, +12.9% yoy) with rolling 12m total up +4.2% to 38.6k. Non-residential mixed: value consented up +14.8% yoy with sqm down -19.9% taking the past 12 months to -6% and -23% respectively.
Construction sector confident, capacity utilisation at record highs (QSBZ, 4Q20): “The building sector remains the most optimistic of the sectors surveyed, as strong construction demand supports a lift in confidence. With the pipeline of residential, non-residential and Government construction work increasing, building sector firms are hiring to keep up with demand. The rebound in construction activity is driving capacity utilisation in the sector to record highs.” (link)
Banks cut mortgage rates: ANZ has matched Westpac's one year fixed rate 'special' of 2.29% (link)
Economists lift OCR forecasts: 'Monetary policy is working', ANZ no longer forecasting a negative OCR (link)

Australia

Detached dwellings underpin strong residential approvals (Nov.): +2.6% mom, +15.0% yoy (previous +3.3% mom, +15.6% yoy) including multi-tenanted -12.2% yoy and detached dwellings +34.5%. Soft month for non-residential: -27.4% mom, -7.1% yoy. Past 12 months -3.5% yoy.
Buoyant approvals lead indicator (Construction finance approvals, Nov): +7.2% mom, +99.0% yoy (previous +11.5% mom, +82.8% yoy).
New home sales spring to 20-year high (Dec.): Detached dwellings +91.8% mom, +203.2% yoy (previous +15.2% mom, +61.3% yoy).

International

China: Construction activity recovery continues (Dec.): Total building starts -1.2% yoy (previous -2.0%) with residential -1.9% (previous -2.7%), office -6.8% yoy (previous -8.0%) and business buildings -4.9% (previous -5.3%).

Chart of the week: Rent growth largely back to pre-COVID levels but Auckland still muted
Change in residential rents

Source:&nbsp;Statistics NZ,&nbsp;Forsyth Barr analysis
Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp; Senior Analyst, Equities

 P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland