Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Cemex 1Q26: Mexico Recovery and Cost Savings Drive EBITDA Beat

Cemex Prices US$1.5bn 5.750% 2036 Senior Unsecured Notes

Cemex 2Q26: Pricing Power Drives a Margin Step-Up

Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

U.S. Tariffs and Their Potential Impact on Cemex and Pemex

Pemex: Lack of Concrete Action Weights on the Outperform Thesis

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Resilient Financials: 4Q25 revenue rose 10.6% and EBITDA 15.7%, driving net leverage down to 2.2x, though valuation caps upside as bonds trade near LTM tights.</li>
<li>
Shareholder Priority: Management prioritizes dividends and buybacks over accelerated deleveraging, using bank funding for maturities, which limits near-term balance sheet repair and spread compression.</li>
<li>
Defensive Positioning: We maintain a Neutral rating, favoring the 2029 notes for protection, as longer-duration bonds offer insufficient compensation for U.S.-Mexico trade risks and volatility.</li>
</ul>



Resilient Financials: 4Q25 revenue rose 10.6% and EBITDA 15.7%, driving net leverage down to 2.2x, though valuation caps upside as bonds trade near LTM tights.

Shareholder Priority: Management prioritizes dividends and buybacks over accelerated deleveraging, using bank funding for maturities, which limits near-term balance sheet repair and spread compression.

Defensive Positioning: We maintain a Neutral rating, favoring the 2029 notes for protection, as longer-duration bonds offer insufficient compensation for U.S.-Mexico trade risks and volatility.


Cemex 4Q25: Entering 2026 from a Stronger Position

Cemex SAB de CV

Cemex 4Q25: Entering 2026 from a Stronger Position