Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

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FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Rates in emerging countries, particularly in the long end, have been selling off. Among the worst performers are Central European (CE) countries when adjusted for their respective betas.</li>
<li>The main driver of the underperformance of CE rates is sharply rising inflation as a result of the powerful fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in response to the pandemic. </li>
<li>Despite the underperformance of CE rates, I don't recommend receiving them against EU rates yet as real rates are still on the low side in comparison with other EM countries.</li>
</ul>


Rates in emerging countries, particularly in the long end, have been selling off. Among the worst performers are Central European (CE) countries when adjusted for their respective betas.
The main driver of the underperformance of CE rates is sharply rising inflation as a result of the powerful fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in response to the pandemic. 
Despite the underperformance of CE rates, I don't recommend receiving them against EU rates yet as real rates are still on the low side in comparison with other EM countries.


Central European Rates Are Among the Hardest Hit in EM

PLN 10Y

Central European Rates Are Among the Hardest Hit in EM