Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing

China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Leading the Low-Cost, Low-Carbon Aluminium Shift

Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers

Chuangxin Industries Pre-IPO: Weak 5M25 and Large Chunk of Revenue from Related Party

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Equity placing strengthens Hongqiao’s balance sheet, cuts refinancing risk, and supports Yunnan’s low-carbon capacity migration.</li>
<li>FY25–27 forecasts updated: modest EPS dilution offset by lower interest costs and improved cash generation.</li>
<li>Valuation remains discounted vs global peers despite first-quartile costs, rising renewable mix, and improving aluminium market fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


Equity placing strengthens Hongqiao’s balance sheet, cuts refinancing risk, and supports Yunnan’s low-carbon capacity migration.
FY25–27 forecasts updated: modest EPS dilution offset by lower interest costs and improved cash generation.
Valuation remains discounted vs global peers despite first-quartile costs, rising renewable mix, and improving aluminium market fundamentals.


China Hongqiao: Capital Raise De-Risks the Balance Sheet Into a Strengthening Aluminium Cycle