Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Robert is the Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst of Real Estate Foresight Ltd (REF) (www.realestateforesight.com), an independent analytics, research, and consulting firm based in Hong Kong and focused on the Mainland China property markets. 

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development.

This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities.

The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

More info: https://www.realestateforesight.com

Robert started the company in 2012, after 13 years at Thomson Reuters in two major roles as Global Head of Real Estate Markets (London/Hong Kong) and earlier as Head of Corporate Foresight in Group Strategy in London. He holds a dual MBA degree from London Business School and Columbia Business School in New York, and MSc from Warsaw School of Economics. Robert holds an international master in chess title.

In 2017, Robert founded Robotic Online Intelligence Ltd (ROI) (www.roboticonline.ai), a startup in AI-powered automation of research for data collection and market intelligence, serving primarily data companies and research firms. 

ROI's Kubro(TM) Information Engine enterprise SaaS solution has been deployed commercially since 2018, with clients in the US, UK, and Asia, in areas ranging from real estate, and policy research, to data centers, and carbon and digital asset markets.

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

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Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument