Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


China National Building Material (3323 HK)

Jilin Liyuan Precision Manufactrg (002501 CH)

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium Co, Ltd. (600497 CH)

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Lianhe Chemical Technology Co, Ltd. (002250 CH)

Gansu Jiu Steel Group Hongxing Iron (600307 CH)

Chongqing Iron & Steel Co Ltd H (1053 HK)

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union (600010 CH)

Jiangsu Protruly Technology Group (600074 CH)

Inner Mngl Jnzhng Eng & Cmci Gp (601216 CH)

Guangdong Hec Technology Holding (600673 CH)

Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co, Ltd. (002408 CH)

Shandong Sinobioway Biomedicine (002581 CH)

Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group (000630 CH)

China Nonferrous Metal Ind Fe & Const. (000758 CH)

Ji Lin Ji En Nickel Industry Co., (600432 CH)

Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co (600409 CH)

Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd (600547 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co, Ltd. (000778 CH)

Beijing Sanju Ep& New Materials (300072 CH)

Shenzhen Jinjia Color Printing Gp (002191 CH)

Kingenta Ecological Enginering Gp (002470 CH)

Cefc Anhui International Holdi (002018 CH)

Jiangsu Baoli Intl Investment (300135 CH)

Jiangsu Kangde Xin Composite Mtrl Co (002450 CH)

Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Mtrl (002522 CH)

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat