Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Asian Hedge Fund manager based in HK/SG with over 20 years of experience managing Asian Long/Short Equity funds. Macroeconomic top-down analysis generates thematic investments that are further researched from the bottom-up. Research is supplemented with advanced technical analysis. 
Previous experience includes M&A with Morgan Stanley and CPA with Deloitte in NYC. Wharton MBA.

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Outlook 2026: THE BIG IDEAS TO NAVIGATE MARKETS

US: Inflation Is Dead, Long Live Inflation!

US: Economic Policy Goes on the Naughty List in 2025

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>After three years of disinflation and continuous price pressures, reflation is reappearing in China.  CNY appreciation pressure and rising government bond yields reflect underlying inflation building in the economy.</li>
<li>Exporters are showing increased preference to repatriate FX earnings as China's trade surplus reaches record highs in 2025.  Foreign investors began to reallocate investments toward the mainland in 2025.</li>
<li>China’s monetary policy will include “reasonable” price increases as one of its major policy benchmarks.  This policy will work in coordination with fiscal policies like "anti-involution" to support prices.</li>
</ul>


After three years of disinflation and continuous price pressures, reflation is reappearing in China.  CNY appreciation pressure and rising government bond yields reflect underlying inflation building in the economy.
Exporters are showing increased preference to repatriate FX earnings as China's trade surplus reaches record highs in 2025.  Foreign investors began to reallocate investments toward the mainland in 2025.
China’s monetary policy will include “reasonable” price increases as one of its major policy benchmarks.  This policy will work in coordination with fiscal policies like "anti-involution" to support prices.


CHINA REFLATION:  China Gets Invited to the Global Inflation Party!