Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Kok Peng has over three decades of experience covering the global economy and financial markets. He spent the bulk of his career in top global investment banks where he covered the Asian economies and stockmarkets. During this period, he travelled extensively to meet clients that cut across business lines. They include fund managers, hedge fund managers, private banking clients, corporates, and fixed income investors in the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia. He is well liked by clients because of his commitment to a consistent framework and the ability to explain economic and financial developments with actionable investment recommendations. As a result he was ranked among top 3 economists in many surveys and polls conducted by financial magazines.

China Strategy: Revisiting the Rmb Appreciation Story

HK Strategy: An Update on Playing the Future H IPOs of the As

China & HK Strategy: Stock Implications for 4Q25

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>For years, China’s GDP growth relied on becoming cheaper in real terms despite a stronger currency. That relative-price engine is now exhausted, fundamentally altering the economy’s growth and export dynamics</li>
<li>Export diversification can sustain volumes, but without pricing power it fails to lift incomes—explaining why last year’s record surplus has not translated into stronger growth or improved consumer confidence</li>
<li>Investors need not abandon China, but expectations should reset: without stronger domestic demand, pricing power, and FDI inflows, optimism remains fragile—especially as property-sector stress continues to weigh on growth</li>
</ul>


For years, China’s GDP growth relied on becoming cheaper in real terms despite a stronger currency. That relative-price engine is now exhausted, fundamentally altering the economy’s growth and export dynamics
Export diversification can sustain volumes, but without pricing power it fails to lift incomes—explaining why last year’s record surplus has not translated into stronger growth or improved consumer confidence
Investors need not abandon China, but expectations should reset: without stronger domestic demand, pricing power, and FDI inflows, optimism remains fragile—especially as property-sector stress continues to weigh on growth


China’s Relative Price Compression: Insights and Implications