Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation

EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?