Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.</li>
<li>$4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.</li>
<li>Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.</li>
</ul>


EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.
$4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.
Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.


Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)

CMOC Group Limited (HKEX: 3993) – High-Growth, Low-Cost Producer Positioned for Re-Rating