Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

CMOC Group Limited (HKEX: 3993) – High-Growth, Low-Cost Producer Positioned for Re-Rating

Equity Bottom-Up

China Molybdenum Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.</li>
<li>With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.</li>
<li>Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.
With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.
Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.


CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside