European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid

Neinor. Aedas Homes: EGM Set, Regulatory Clearance Secured — But No Sweetener Yet

Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CNMV approves Neinor’s €21.335 voluntary OPA; minorities unlikely to tender, making the mandatory €24 offer the highest-probability exit with minimal regulatory risk.</li>
<li>Aedas trades at €23.65, pricing a near-certain €24 outcome. Remaining 1.48% spread offers a high-certainty, mid–single-digit annualized IRR driven primarily by timing, not deal completion.</li>
<li>Key tail event is a &gt;90% acceptance squeeze-out at €21.335, but probability remains extremely low. Most realistic path is a mandatory €24 OPA settling mid–February 2026.</li>
</ul>


CNMV approves Neinor’s €21.335 voluntary OPA; minorities unlikely to tender, making the mandatory €24 offer the highest-probability exit with minimal regulatory risk.
Aedas trades at €23.65, pricing a near-certain €24 outcome. Remaining 1.48% spread offers a high-certainty, mid–single-digit annualized IRR driven primarily by timing, not deal completion.
Key tail event is a &gt;90% acceptance squeeze-out at €21.335, but probability remains extremely low. Most realistic path is a mandatory €24 OPA settling mid–February 2026.


CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

Aedas Homes SA

CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case