European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Neinor / Aedas Homes – Second OPA at €24 for Minorities Reshapes the Arb

CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

Potential Takeover of Aedas Homes by Hines and Starwood

Neinor/Aedas Homes: Locked-In Majority, But Minorities May Still Get Paid

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Neinor’s takeover of Aedas is effectively secured by Castlelake’s 79% lock-in; with FDI clearance obtained and the 20 October EGM approaching, execution risk is minimal, spread remains modest.</li>
<li>At €21.335/share, the offer implies a 1.35% gross spread versus €21.05; base-case annualized return ~6.8% for 75 days, with IRR sensitive to settlement timing and entry price.</li>
<li>Upside from a sweetener looks limited; downside tied mainly to timing drift, not deal break. Minority leverage persists for delisting, but near-term event-driven positioning is purely a carry trade.</li>
</ul>


Neinor’s takeover of Aedas is effectively secured by Castlelake’s 79% lock-in; with FDI clearance obtained and the 20 October EGM approaching, execution risk is minimal, spread remains modest.
At €21.335/share, the offer implies a 1.35% gross spread versus €21.05; base-case annualized return ~6.8% for 75 days, with IRR sensitive to settlement timing and entry price.
Upside from a sweetener looks limited; downside tied mainly to timing drift, not deal break. Minority leverage persists for delisting, but near-term event-driven positioning is purely a carry trade.


Neinor. Aedas Homes: EGM Set, Regulatory Clearance Secured — But No Sweetener Yet

Aedas Homes SA

Neinor. Aedas Homes: EGM Set, Regulatory Clearance Secured — But No Sweetener Yet