Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Nearly 25 years of experience in analyzing hundreds of companies, especially in Asia. Deep expertise in the following sectors:
- Technology (E-commerce, SaaS, Internet)
- Consumer 
- Special Situations/Deep Value Plays
- Holdcos/Stubs
- Asian Unicorns/Private Companies

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Coinbase DPO – A Guide to Implied Prices Based on Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices

Revisiting Our Valuation of Coinbase Post Bitcoin Plunge

Coinbase IPO – Why You Can Justify a $100bn Valuation… If You Want

Coinbase Direct Listing Valuation Analysis

The Blockchain Delusion. A (Mostly) Bearish Investment Thesis.

Equity Capital Markets

Coinbase Global  / Equity Capital Markets

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<p>In the direct listing on 14 April, Coinbase is aiming for about $100 billion in valuation. In 1Q 2021, it had sales of $1.8 billion and high end net profit of $800 million. If we annualize these figures, this would result in annual sales of $7.2 billion and annual net profit of $3.2 billion. These are phenomenal figures. At $100 billion valuation, this would suggest a P/E of 31x. Many investors would be comfortable with these kind of multiples as being reasonable. </p>
<p>All in all, we stick with our original thesis and valuation on Coinbase over a one year view. Our valuation analysis suggests a range of $31.9 billion to $47.9 billion in market cap for Coinbase. Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is nearly 60% lower than the $100 billion value that Coinbase is trying to aim in this direct listing. </p>
<p>In terms of short-term trading post IPO, given the excellent 1Q 2021 results, we believe that the company's valuation could indeed reach $100 billion. However, we believe this kind of valuation to be short lasting. Over a longer view (one year), we believe there is a higher probability that the company's valuation declines to our base case level (about $40 billion). This will become more evident as numerous other competitors offer extremely low pricing and many customers switch to their services. </p>
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In the direct listing on 14 April, Coinbase is aiming for about $100 billion in valuation. In 1Q 2021, it had sales of $1.8 billion and high end net profit of $800 million. If we annualize these figures, this would result in annual sales of $7.2 billion and annual net profit of $3.2 billion. These are phenomenal figures. At $100 billion valuation, this would suggest a P/E of 31x. Many investors would be comfortable with these kind of multiples as being reasonable. 
All in all, we stick with our original thesis and valuation on Coinbase over a one year view. Our valuation analysis suggests a range of $31.9 billion to $47.9 billion in market cap for Coinbase. Our base case valuation of Coinbase is $39.9 billion, which is nearly 60% lower than the $100 billion value that Coinbase is trying to aim in this direct listing. 
In terms of short-term trading post IPO, given the excellent 1Q 2021 results, we believe that the company's valuation could indeed reach $100 billion. However, we believe this kind of valuation to be short lasting. Over a longer view (one year), we believe there is a higher probability that the company's valuation declines to our base case level (about $40 billion). This will become more evident as numerous other competitors offer extremely low pricing and many customers switch to their services. 


Coinbase: Excellent 1Q 2021 Earnings, But Is It Sustainable?