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Colombia: Hiking Into Political Opposition

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Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

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<ul>
<li>BanRep unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25bp to 12.25%. A three-way split signals an active debate over the need and forcefulness of further tightening.</li>
<li>Broadening inflation and elevated expectations keep the bias hawkish, with El Niño, fiscal policy and external rates posing additional upside risks.</li>
<li>A dovish pivot to rate cuts would require clear disinflation towards 3%. Softer demand, credible fiscal restraint and delayed peso pass-through could yet create room in 2027.</li>
</ul>


BanRep unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 25bp to 12.25%. A three-way split signals an active debate over the need and forcefulness of further tightening.
Broadening inflation and elevated expectations keep the bias hawkish, with El Niño, fiscal policy and external rates posing additional upside risks.
A dovish pivot to rate cuts would require clear disinflation towards 3%. Softer demand, credible fiscal restraint and delayed peso pass-through could yet create room in 2027.


Colombia Resumes Tightening