ECM Weekly (24th Sep 2023) - Cainiao, J&T, Midea, Kokusai, Seoul Guarantee, Barito, Integral, DPC

NTT's Partial Offer for Intage (4326) Part Deux - Refining Pro-Ration Expectations

Vinfast: Ambitious EV Plan Seems Unrealistic; Share Price Down More than 50%

2022 High Conviction – Recruit: Post Covid Recovery May Be Short-Lived

Recruit Buyback: An Attempt to Rescue Falling Share Price; Seems Like a Good Short

Freee 2Q: OP Beat Wipes Out Concerns on Mid/Large User Growth and Profitability

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)</a> reported its 3QFY03/22 results today and reported a revenue growth of 22.0% YoY to ¥746bn (vs consensus revenue of ¥706.6bn, 5.6% beat).</li>
<li>OP increased 61.5% YoY to ¥110.6bn with an OP beat of 10.1%. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 54.1% to ¥134.8bn compared to ¥87.5bn for the 3rd quarter last year.</li>
<li>Though 3Q results was strong, earnings weakness begins to show up with normalisation of recruitment activities. Stock is down more than 15% since we made our conviction call short.</li>
</ul>



Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported its 3QFY03/22 results today and reported a revenue growth of 22.0% YoY to ¥746bn (vs consensus revenue of ¥706.6bn, 5.6% beat).
OP increased 61.5% YoY to ¥110.6bn with an OP beat of 10.1%. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 54.1% to ¥134.8bn compared to ¥87.5bn for the 3rd quarter last year.
Though 3Q results was strong, earnings weakness begins to show up with normalisation of recruitment activities. Stock is down more than 15% since we made our conviction call short.


Conviction Call Recruit – Strong Results; Earnings Weakness Begins to Show Up and Down More Than 15%